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Volume 4, Issue 8                      December 19, 2005
 
A Letter from Shanghai Part I

By David L. Smith

Mediasmith's President and CEO reports on a "mind boggling" journey to ad:tech Shanghai where search, consumer generated media, ad serving, metrics and more are discussed. This note was written after the first day of the show on 11/16/05.

I am not sure what I expected out of ad:tech Shanghai, but one thing is for sure; just being here is mind boggling. Urban legend has it that over 70 percent of the building cranes in the world are in Shanghai. That may be close to true. Whatever the number is, this is a boomtown and China is definitely on the fast track to go from the third world to the first world, skipping the second.

This is a very sophisticated city. All the best stores, great hotels, terrific restaurants, and overall it is easy to be in. The organizers went to the trouble to ask each person whether they were presenting in English or Mandarin. Then they rented headsets to everyone. True to form, the greeting was in Mandarin. Then the headsets went away and the translator did not get much business as the whole conference proceeded in English.

 

Mediasmith Morsel
Online Video Ad Spending is Skyrocketing
Online video ad spending is up 66.7% over 2004 and spending in 2006 is anticipated to be up 71% over this year. While $640 million is tiny compared with the $17.8 billion eMarketer predicts will be spent on all online advertising in 2007, it’s significant because of the rate at which that spending is growing. Adage reports that this money is being funneled out of TV, but TV ads aren’t expected to converge until online video quality exceeds current TV quality.


The Internet? It is booming here too. The official Internet population is over 100 million in China, which makes it the second most populous Internet crowd in the world. More on that later. What is amazing is the penetration of IM usage among young folks. There are several IM companies in China with 50 to 70 million unique users. MSN launched a few months ago with only IM and a shell website. Their IM is growing rapidly, but even though their site (by their own words) is nothing special, they have had cumulatively over 50 million uniques to their site since launch.

According to the recent Synovate “Young Asians Study 2005,” an astounding 39% of 16 to 24-year-olds media usage is spent online while T.V. usage remains at just 40%. That’s web and wireless IM combined, and wireless IM is huge here. It is a major component in the whole mix. The mobile web is driving a lot of growth and they are currently wrestling with the issues of audio and video attachments via IM, et cetera.

 Web is growing rapidly

While China seems to be behind the United States with less than 10 percent of the population online, the way they are doing it is leapfrogging much of the rest of the world. In much the same way that South Korea, Japan and many other Asian countries are.

Over dinner last night, some of us were ruminating about the meaning of all of this. The numbers are sketchy as the web has snuck up on the researchers here and we don’t have the same documentation that we might in other markets. That said, check out these numbers: If there are over 100 million on the web right now in China from a documented standpoint, the number in actuality is much higher. At under 10 percent penetration, it stands to reason that whole family units (and China is definitely a place where extended family is under one roof), are using one PC and a single IP address. Add to that the extensive use of internet cafes. It is conceivable that the actual Chinese internet population has already surpassed the United States' and thus is the LARGEST in the world! And growing at a clip of 20 percent each year.

Mediasmith Morsel. . .
Try our FREE Site Search Audit.
Search creative does exist! See how your site stacks up against its competitors’ Search creative as well as “Organic” and “Paid” Search listings. Email Bob Heyman, our Chief Search Officer, at bheyman@mediasmith.com to take us up on our offer and find out more about our Search Consulting Practice.

The advertising angle

Ad sales in China are in the early stages. Everyone wants the home page of the portals, so you might see 15 ads on a home page as advertisers want to be able to see their ads at all times. As such, many of the buys here are not impression based but time based. (I call it CEO targeting.) CPM purchasing, combined with buying the long tail will come in time, but not right away. Right now, it is all about real estate. In Hong Kong, 60 percent of the people are online but it still only represents one to two percent of ad spending. It is clear that multi-national companies are still learning how to tailor messaging for each country in Asia, all of which represent unique markets. Pay for performance is growing but many companies do not yet have good metrics or goals in place so the hybrid buy is common in performance marketing.

Six hundred people are expected to attend the conference and trade show and the expectations are definitely aspirational. The best and the brightest of the U.S. internet brain trust are here to discuss our process and educate. The Chinese and Hong Kong agencies are quick to point out the differences over here and are proud of their rapid growth and accomplishments. There is the predictable battle between the big multi-national U.S. and Europe-centric agencies with their traditional media strategies vs. the local, internet-centric work done by the domestic companies. TV and radio are still growing here, while print is predicted to have a hard time over the next several years.

 

Mediasmith Morsel. . .
Cable, A La Carte
(Reuters) AT&T INC., the biggest U.S. telephone company that is also moving into the subscription television business, said Thursday it would be willing to allow customers to pay for only the television channels they want. Most of the cable and satellite television industry has resisted pressure from U.S. regulators and lawmakers to embrace what is known as "a la carte service" instead of bundles, arguing it would cost more and niche channels would be squeezed out. Still, FCC Kevin Martin said earlier this week a la carte may not cost more and it would help parents weed out channels that have sexual and other content they want to shield from their children. AT&T for the first time publicly took a position on the matter, expressing its willingness to offer a per-channel pricing. VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS is also rolling out video service, but has not directly endorsed a la carte. AT&T is rolling out television service to compete with cable companies like COMCAST CORP. and TIME WARNER INC. AT&T plans to begin offering its video service in earnest early next year. CABLEVISION SYSTEMS CORP. has supported a la carte in the past.


The local Interactive agencies are open about their needs for talent and they are not parochial about it. There are more than a few Westerners making their mark alongside Chinese counterparts. The future is indeed bright here. To paraphrase one speaker yesterday, Internet oxygen is driving the consumers and the marketplace.

 A version of the above article originally appeared in iMediaconnection.

David L. Smith is President and CEO of Mediasmith , an Integrated Media Agency based in San Francisco. He speaks regularly at industry events including ad:tech, iMedia and OMMA.

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